Analisis Dampak Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat terhadap Pasar Tenaga Kerja dan Industri di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33603/publika.v13i2.10979Keywords:
perang dagang, pasar tenaga kerja, industri manufaktur, diversifikasi ekspor, pengangguran strukturalAbstract
Perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat dan China sejak 2018 telah memberikan dampak signifikan dan multidimensi terhadap pasar tenaga kerja dan industri di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan studi kasus dan analisis tematik untuk mengkaji dampak konflik perdagangan tersebut, baik dari sisi tekanan negatif berupa penurunan permintaan ekspor, disrupsi rantai pasok, dan risiko PHK massal di sektor manufaktur berorientasi ekspor, maupun peluang strategis melalui diversifikasi pasar ekspor, trade diversion, dan relokasi industri manufaktur dari China. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perang dagang memicu tantangan seperti pengangguran struktural, kesenjangan upah, dan volatilitas produksi, namun juga membuka kesempatan untuk reposisi industri dan peningkatan kapasitas nasional. Kebijakan adaptif berbasis evidence, meliputi reformasi pasar tenaga kerja, diversifikasi ekspor, penguatan substitusi impor, dan peningkatan iklim investasi, diidentifikasi sebagai kunci keberhasilan untuk meningkatkan daya tahan dan daya saing ekonomi Indonesia di tengah dinamika global.
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