Analysis System of Forecasting on Egg Production and Demand Using the Least Square Method

Abstract

At now chicken eggs are one of the basic needs of the people of Indonesia. Every month the demand for chicken eggs continues to increase dramatically, especially on major holidays. To meet this demand, chicken egg producers continue to increase their production in hopes of getting a large profit. But the problem that often occurs is the production of chicken eggs is not proportional to the demand from consumers. This is due to the producers being unable to estimate the production of chicken eggs, so producers continue to receive consumer demand without thinking about whether production is sufficient or not. The purpose of this study is to predict chicken egg production in the following months based on the results of production in the previous month. In this study, data processing will be carried out on the production of chicken eggs and demand for chicken eggs taken from January to November. Furthermore, the data will be processed and tested using the Least Square method. The results of the tests that have been done, obtained a prediction accuracy value of 90% with a production prediction in December of 1352 items and a demand prediction of 1391. Then the use of the Least Square method is able to make predictions for chicken egg production and demand prediction for the following month.